Cheese Exports Set Fresh Records 📈

MARKET NEWS

Daily Dairy Report | December 11, 2025

Cheese Exports Set Fresh Records 📈

U.S. milk powder exports slumped to an eight-month low in September, as greater output abroad eroded opportunities for export. Shipments totalled 111 million pounds, according to data from USDA’s Global Agricultural Trade System. That was 18.5% less than the prior year and the lowest September volume since 2017.

But cheese, butter, and whey powder exports remained strong. U.S. exporters sent 116.5 million pounds of cheese abroad in September, 34.5% more than the year before. Although absolute volumes were slightly lower than in July and August, daily average volumes set a fresh all-time high. Shipments to Mexico topped the prior year by 19.4% and notched a daily-average record high. Exports remained strong to key markets such as South Korea and Japan as well. Australia climbed the ranks to become America’s third-largest foreign market as high cheese prices in Oceania pushed Aussies to look elsewhere for supply.

U.S. cheese exports to Australia reached an all-time high in September. Australia has already imported more U.S. cheese in 2025 than in any other year, with three months left to be counted. U.S. butter exports fell short of the record-shattering volumes set in July and August, but they remained historically large. Meanwhile, imports stayed soft. U.S. butter imports from Ireland in January through September were 52% lower than in the first nine months of 2024.

U.S. whey powder exports topped September 2024 volumes by 8.3%. But shipments of whey protein concentrates fell 25% as manufacturers prioritized sales to domestic buyers.

When September dairy product export sales were booked several months ago, the United States was the world’s lowest cost provider of cheese and butter. But now after a steep decline in European values, U.S. cheese and butter export volumes could falter, and milk powder shipments could decline further. The outlook for whey products is brighter thanks to the world’s nearly insatiable appetite for dairy proteins.

NMPF DAIRY MARKET REPORT

Volume 28 | Issue 11 | November 26, 2025

U.S. fluid milk sales in September were 2.5% higher than a year earlier. Exports during June–August were significantly higher than during the same period a year earlier.

The recent expansion of U.S. milk production may be cresting; USDA reported October production and dairy cow numbers were up over a year earlier by slightly smaller percentages than during September. The NDPSR-reported dairy product prices were almost all lower in October than a month earlier, as were all the federal order class prices.

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USDA DAIRY MARKET NEWS

December 12, 2025

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS:
Cheese output in the East is trending higher as year-end production ramps up and additional milk moves into cheese vats. Retail activity is seasonally supportive as grocers build inventories, while bulk demand remains steady to lighter. Inventory levels are balanced and aligned with current movement. Cheese production in the Central region remains strong, though some contacts note output has eased from recent weeks. Winter weather is impacting milk production and transportation, prompting some cheesemakers to secure spot volumes to maintain steady schedules. A few plants report downtime and are selling spot milk. Retail cheese demand is firm heading into the holidays, while food service activity holds steady. Export interest remains strong, and spot loads of cheese are available to meet current demand. Western cheese manufacturers continue to receive strong milk volumes, keeping production schedules active. Domestic demand is flat overall, though export interest remains steady to strong. Producers are focused on meeting December needs, with some varieties seeing tighter availability.

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS:
Domestic retail butter demand is stronger this week. Contacts report flat domestic food service butter demand. Demand from international buyers varies from steady to strong. Cream loads are readily available. Cream demand from butter manufacturers is mixed. Butter production schedules are strong. Some butter manufacturers note international loads continue to be the priority for their bulk butter production lines. Domestic bulk butter and 80 percent butterfat unsalted butter loads are somewhat tight. 80 percent butterfat salted butter loads are readily available. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

FLUID MILK:
For much of the United States, milk output was lighter this week. Some regions experienced extreme weather, which greatly affected cow comfort. Milk component levels remain strong. Class I demand is strong. Contacts mention bottling facilities are finalizing orders for educational institutions prior to the start of their winter breaks. During that time bottling is expected to decline. For now, spot purchases for Class I are in demand and some Class III manufacturers are selling loads to Class I facilities. Class II demand is steady in some regions and light in others. Class II production is expected to remain light since most holiday demand is already fulfilled. Class III activity is stronger this week. Some cheesemakers are purchasing spot loads of milk ahead of forecasted winter weather that may cause transportation disruptions. The range for spot loads of milk for Class III are selling for $2.00 under to $3.50 over Class price. Class IV is steady. Some butter manufacturers are purchasing spot loads of cream, but many are covered by contracted amounts. Spot loads of cream are readily available. Condensed skim is in higher demand this week. The price for condensed skim ranged from flat to $0.15 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.05 – 1.32 in the East; 1.05 – 1.25 in the Midwest; 0.90 – 1.20 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS:
Prices for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk decreased across the range in the Central and East regions and at the bottom of the West range. The bottom of the Central and East high heat NDM price range moved lower, while moving higher in the West. Dry buttermilk prices are unchanged in the Central and East regions. In the West, both ends of the price range for dry buttermilk moved higher, but the mostly price series held steady. Dry whey prices increased at the bottom of the range in the Central and West regions, and at the top of the range in the West. The mostly price series for dry whey in the Central region is unchanged, but both ends moved higher in the West. Prices for lactose decreased at the top of the range, while the bottom and both ends of the mostly price series held steady. The mostly price series for whey protein concentrate 34% is unchanged, but both ends of the price range shifted higher this week. Prices for both acid and rennet casein are unchanged.

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